Latest on-the-spot report from Ealing

Ealing Southall

From: John Cartwright (OMRLP) Candidate



The constituency of Ealing Southall is made up of two completely different halves which might as well be at different ends of the country.

In Southall there is a very energetic by-election campaign happening, with dozens of leafleteers and activists, several cars with loudspeakers, pavements drowning in discarded leaflets, shop windows covered with posters, a genuine three-way contest between the maion parties aiming to win, and local youngsters spontaneously bigging up Tony Lit at frequent intervals.

In Ealing Common today, I spent an hour or two walking about with my placard and saw a total of two Lib Dem posters in people's windows. No activists, no leaflets, no cars, no campaign. Two locals commented to me that I was the first candidate or politician that they had seen in the whole campaign.

I have a theory that the people in the eastern half of the constituency may be being taken for granted by the main parties, that they are being relied on to vote anyway without needing to be persuaded, and that they will apply the usual mechanics to the psychology of by-elections. The comfortable middle classes of Ealing Common, invisible behind their net curtains yet steadfast in their polling booths, may have already decided to vote tactically for the Lib Dem candidate, and to squeeze the Conservative Party out completely, in order to give Labour a kicking. Mr and Mrs Not-Particularly-Interested-In-Politics-But-Aware-That-The-Lib-Dem-was-Second-Last-Time may not even be aware of the big personality cult / bandwagon which has been developing for Tony Lit three miles away.

If this hunch is correct, and if it is combined with a differential turnout between the two halves of the constituency (perhaps 40% in Ealing and 30% in Southall?), then do not be surprised by a substantial Lib Dem victory on Thursday. If the result is something like

Lib Dem 13,000
Labour 11,000
Conservative 6,000
Others: Whatever

then remember it was what I wrote here first.

P.S. If this campaign had been a week longer, it would have given all the voters the chance to work out properly their tactical voting, i.e. (collectively) to decide decisively that the way to stop Labour is for the Conservative supporters to vote Lib Dem, rather than the other way round.